They didn't convert the 4th down, so the Colts get the ball with 30 yards to go. The Colts obv get a TD, and run out the clock doing so.

My second argument is that if BB was such a genius, and was so certain they would score, he would've let the Colts score quick so they would get the ball back with plenty of time left.

If you're going to base your argument on the fact that this team was a sure score from 70 out then you should've allowed them a quick score from the 30. 3rd and 4th down were a complete cluster fuck. Belichick made a terrible call, and now he has all these stupid jock sniffers riding his nuts, and trying to use ridiculous math equations to justify his inane decision.

The ball was on the patriots 30 yard line, meaning that if the Patriots didn't get it, Indy would only have to go 30 yards to score a TD. If they punted (the average punt is 40 yards) you can see that 30+40 more yards ='s 70 yards to go.

Thank you ship.

Obv I understand that.

What I don't understand is why IndyJoe thinks it's worth pointing out. Clearly the whole fucking plan is for the offense to wind down the clock by retaining possession.

If there was no risk to the play, it would hardly be a discussion topic...would it?

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Originally Posted by IndyJoe

They didn't convert the 4th down, so the Colts get the ball with 30 yards to go. The Colts obv get a TD, and run out the clock doing so.

My second argument is that if BB was such a genius, and was so certain they would score, he would've let the Colts score quick so they would get the ball back with plenty of time left.

If you're going to base your argument on the fact that this team was a sure score from 70 out then you should've allowed them a quick score from the 30. 3rd and 4th down were a complete cluster fuck. Belichick made a terrible call, and now he has all these stupid jock sniffers riding his nuts, and trying to use ridiculous math equations to justify his inane decision.

This is such an hilarious reverse logic trap you've got yourself into...it's really amusing.

If you're basing your argument on the fact that the opposition will score from 70, then you go for the first down and wind down the clock. You don't let them in for a gift and the lead on the chance you can drive up the field ftw.

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Belichick had already pissed off his defense by not giving them the chance to stop Manning from 70 yards out. So there's just no shot that Belichick would have THEN told his defense "Let them score, we're going to give Tom and Randy the last chance." His players probably just wouldn't have done it. If they had of agreed, letting the Colts score immediately, and the offense would have failed to get a field goal, Belichick would lose control of his defense and that's not something you want to do when you're looking to contend.

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Originally Posted by Scooter

Once the gamble failed, there is an argument to let them in yes. But that's really neither here nor there - and an entirely separate issue.

True. Another downside to letting them in - Brady had just spent the last possession blowing the game by not getting a 1st down. Why assume that he could make it 45 yards for a FG in the last minute and a half with no timeouts?

What I don't understand is why IndyJoe thinks it's worth pointing out. Clearly the whole fucking plan is for the offense to wind down the clock by retaining possession.

If there was no risk to the play, it would hardly be a discussion topic...would it?[COLOR="Silver"]

Not one bit. You dont understand American Football in the slightest. Shut it down.

Ok here are some non-morons using solid maths to own your stupid faces.

Originally Posted by Jeff M.

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 4:35pm

Here's how I calculate it:
If you go for it, you win if:
a) You succeed
b) You fail and the Colts don't score a TD
c) You fail, the Colts score a TD, and you make a game-winning drive

If you punt, you win if:
a) The Colts don't score a TD
b) The Colts score a TD and you make a game-winning drive

Let's (fairly arbitrary #s, but taken from of variety of articles written about this [or just made up]) say you have a 60% chance of succeeding on 4th down, the Colts score the TD 90% of the time after a failure and 40% of the time after a punt, and you make a game-winning drive 20% of the time after a failure and TD and 10% after a punt and TD (less time on clock--I'm calculating this as Belichick would have had to, not with benefit of hindsight on how much time actually ended up there).

Then p(Win|GFI)=.6+.4*.1+.4*.9*.2=.712
and p(Win|Punt)=.6+.4*.1=.64

So as someone above points out, this increases the odds in both cases (and increases the spread between) from the calculator's .63 and .6 (even if you give the same 10% probability of a game-winning drive, it's .676 to .64), but to mind the really interesting thing is that p(Win|GFI)-p(Win|Punt) should be increasing in some underlying latent variable measuring offense quality (not just because of the 4th-down success, but also the likelihood of a game-winning drive) and decreasing in an underlying latent variable measuring defense quality, which means the pundit-esque "it shows he didn't believe in his defense" would actually be borne out by this model.

Pretty much every non-moron is coming up with formulas proving the play was good by 3-8%.

Here is some layman stuff that is solid for those of you who failed junior high maths.

Originally Posted by Hank

Mon, 11/16/2009 - 4:34pm

I think the decision to go for it was one of the greatest coaching moments the nfl will ever see. In the 4th quarter, Manning had shown a ridiculous ease to score in under 2 minutes and starting from his own 20. Why give him another chance to do what he had just done twice already?

We all saw how quickly Manning drove for a td from 30 yards out. The Pats defense doesn't suddenly turn into a different, and effective, unit if Peyton gets the ball from 80 or 200 yards out.

The Pats offense has a 100% chance of victory if they convert a 4th and 2. And they aren't the Lions or Rams offense, this is the Pats. They are going to convert that 4th and 2 almost every single time. We just happened to witness a rare event. No need to be fooled by randomness.

It's a shame that a coach will never get fired for punting the ball.

It's ludicrous morons like some of the posters in this thread who are holding coaches back from making optimal (i.e. exciting [high risk/reward]) plays.

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Originally Posted by GAMBLE-BOT

Not one bit. You dont understand American Football in the slightest. Shut it down.

Well, every intelligent commentator on the fucking internet agrees with me.

Also. If you have decided that you are going to go for it on 4th down, and it wasn't a spur of the moment "awww fuck it" kind of decision, why would you not run the ball on 3rd down and either pick it up or set up a third and short(er)?

True. Another downside to letting them in - Brady had just spent the last possession blowing the game by not getting a 1st down. Why assume that he could make it 45 yards for a FG in the last minute and a half with no timeouts?

I disagree. He had already shown his defense that he had zero confidence in them. Zero. My point is that if you're going to go for it, you have to have a backup plan if you fail. The backup plan is the opposite of what you just did? Come on. You just told your D that they can't stop a team from driving 70 yards, but "Hey guys I believe in you, let's stop them from getting a TD here." Ridiculous.

Are you asking me if I think it would be easier to try and stop the Colts on the 30, or for Brady to move the ball 40 yards? I think the answer is obvious.

if they had tried to let them score a peyton manning team would have kept falling down instead of going right in and run out the clock

he is a football genius and real life autistic, true story

lol, when Addai took off on that run I was yelling at the TV: DON'T SCORE TOO QUICK, DON'T SCORE TOO QUICK. The Pats saved our ass with that tackle on the one.

I disagree. He had already shown his defense that he had zero confidence in them. Zero. My point is that if you're going to go for it, you have to have a backup plan if you fail. The backup plan is the opposite of what you just did? Come on. You just told your D that they can't stop a team from driving 70 yards, but "Hey guys I believe in you, let's stop them from getting a TD here." Ridiculous.

Are you asking me if I think it would be easier to try and stop the Colts on the 30, or for Brady to move the ball 40 yards? I think the answer is obvious.

Now you're just trying to argue a separate issue. What they do post-decision has no bearing on anything. You must ride the fuck out of results in poker. You need to get away from this results-orientated line of thinking you have...

I'll make this shit easy for you and Gambowl. Because it's becoming increasingly apparent neither of you are capable of framing a counter argument that even makes sense. Heck, one that even appears to be a counter would be appreciated.

Now you're just trying to argue a separate issue. What they do post-decision has no bearing on anything. You must ride the fuck out of results in poker. You need to get away from this results-orientated line of thinking you have...

I'll make this shit easy for you and Gambowl. Because it's becoming increasingly apparent neither of you are capable of framing a counter argument that even makes sense. Heck, one that even appears to be a counter would be appreciated.

That's a calculator so you don't have to hurt your heads doing the tricky-wicky mathematicalz.

Toy around with it putting in values that allow you to show that not punting it was retarded....

...and our side can then destroy your faces when you try and justify the %'s you entered.

This is what I came up with:

Evaluating Belichick's Decision
The Percentages
A Chances the 4th down conversion succeeds: 30%
B Chances the Colts score a TD from the NE 30: 75%
C Chances the Colts score a TD after a punt: 30%
D Are numbers tools used by nerds and the devil
to destroy the great game of football?: True

Results
Chances of winning if you go for it: 47%
Chances of winning if you punt: 70%

Verdict SEE, EVEN THE NERDS THINK BELICHICK IS A PRICK!!

Dude, you're crossing the line into pure retardation. Do you not understand the junior high maths? Are you saying the internet posted maths are flawed? Do you have another way of calculating basic algebra?

Dude, you're crossing the line into pure retardation. Do you not understand the junior high maths? Are you saying the internet posted maths are flawed? Do you have another way of calculating basic algebra?

Evaluating Belichick's Decision
The Percentages
A Chances the 4th down conversion succeeds: 30%
B Chances the Colts score a TD from the NE 30: 75%
C Chances the Colts score a TD after a punt: 30%
D Are numbers tools used by nerds and the devil
to destroy the great game of football?: True

Results
Chances of winning if you go for it: 47%
Chances of winning if you punt: 70%

Ah ok.

So I have actually been arguing with a moron. I feel cheap, dirty and used. Won't be the first time. Won't be the last. I believe I am scheduled to argue with The Chin tomorrow.

Those values are too insulting for me to counter. Your wife is smoking but you fail at school and gambling.

Evaluating Belichick's Decision
The Percentages
A Chances the 4th down conversion succeeds: 40%
B Chances the Colts score a TD from the NE 30: 80%
C Chances the Colts score a TD after a punt: 50%
D Are numbers tools used by nerds and the devil
to destroy the great game of football?: no

Results
Chances of winning if you go for it: 52%
Chances of winning if you punt: 50%

Verdict
I wasn't on board with the call at first, but the numbers don't lie, smart gutsy call by Belichick.

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Evaluating Belichick's Decision
The Percentages
A Chances the 4th down conversion succeeds: 40%
B Chances the Colts score a TD from the NE 30: 80%
C Chances the Colts score a TD after a punt: 50%
D Are numbers tools used by nerds and the devil
to destroy the great game of football?: yes

Results
Chances of winning if you go for it: 52%
Chances of winning if you punt: 50%

Verdict
FOOTBALL IS PLAYED ON THE FIELD!! BELICHICK IS AN ARROGANT PRICK, WORST COACHING DECISION I'VE EVER SEEN!!

Dude, you're crossing the line into pure retardation. Do you not understand the junior high maths? Are you saying the internet posted maths are flawed? Do you have another way of calculating basic algebra?

Do you have midnight black skin tone?

Scooter,

What you're way too stupid to understand is how ridiculous it is to use NFL averages and apply them to this scenario. And to make a decision based on a forumla of averages is even more ridiculous. Please stop the madness. You don't get it. You don't understand it.